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Economics

The Supervision Risk and Analysis department is continually developing and contributing to the economics body of knowledge. For more information visit a wide range of thought-provoking articles, published research, and working papers created by OCC's economists, explore the table below.

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On Point - Focused Analyses of Current Economic and Banking Issues

Publication DateTitleVersion
12/11/2024Bank Deposit Growth to Remain Sluggish Through 2025December 2024
11/12/2024First-Time Homebuyers Affected by Historical ChallengesNovember 2024
10/11/2024The Geographic Mismatch Between Housing Construction and ShortagesOctober 2024
04/25/2024Do Past Cycles Predict the Future of Home Prices?April 2024
12/08/2022Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Likely to PersistDecember 2022
11/30/2022Global Banking's Improved Capital Levels May Soon be TestedNovember 2022
08/19/2022Could Higher Prices Boost U.S. Grain Farm Income?August 2022
08/17/2022Rising Payments May Pressure Consumer Debt Burden and DelinquenciesAugust 2022
06/15/2022Office Loans in Urban Areas Hold Most Credit RiskJune 2022
06/02/2022Uncertain Business Travel Outlook Increases Credit Risk of Urban Hotel LoansJune 2022
05/19/2022Uncertain Future of Business Travel a Risk for Higher-End LodgingMay 2022
04/07/2022Could Supply Chain Overcorrection Result in Excess Inventories?April 2022
03/24/2022Supply Chain Stress Pressures Small Firm ProfitabilityMarch 2022
03/07/2022Policy Unwind Adds Risk of Sharply Higher Long-Term Bond YieldsMarch 2022
02/10/2022Is a Wage-Price Spiral Emerging?February 2022
01/27/2022Banks' Rising Labor Costs Partly Reflect Industry-Specific FactorsJanuary 2022
01/25/2022The Pandemic-Fueled Preference for Single-Family Homes May EndureJanuary 2022
01/07/2022Deposit Growth Likely Slowing but Abundance of Low-Cost Funding Could Endure Through 2022January 2022
12/03/2021Home Buyers Remain in Large Metropolitan Statistical Areas Despite COVID-19December 2021
11/10/2021Industries Recovering Unevenly From the PandemicNovember 2021
10/29/2021Used Vehicle Prices Likely to Stay Elevated Through Next YearOctober 2021
10/18/2021Bank Performance Under a High Inflation ScenarioOctober 2021
09/22/2021Asian Corporate Bond Spreads May Not Reflect Underlying RisksSeptember 2021
07/20/2021Sustaining Bank Profitability a Near-Term ChallengeJuly 2021
06/01/2021High Business Debt Does Not Represent a "Bubble"June 2021
05/18/2021Widespread Housing Foreclosures UnlikelyMay 2021
04/29/2021Credit Card Delinquencies Decline and Defaults Remain Resistant to the PandemicApril 2021
04/06/2021PPP Lending Provides Boost to Metro Area Small Banks and BusinessesApril 2021
02/23/20212021 Economic Forecast Uncertainty Amplified by Global PandemicFebruary 2021
02/04/2021Do Negative Interest Rate Policies Actually Work? (And at What Cost?)February 2021
01/22/2021Home Prices Escape Recession UnscathedJanuary 2021
01/06/2021Inflation, Further Surge in Bank Assets UnlikelyJanuary 2021
12/07/2020Pandemic Provisioning Reflects Economic StressDecember 2020
12/07/2020The Geography of Pandemic Stress and PPP LendingDecember 2020
Publication DateTitleVersion
02/25/2025U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy slowed in 4Q:2024 despite strong consumer spendingFebruary 2025
12/02/2024U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy grew solidly in 3Q, but growth is expected to slowNovember 2024
08/22/2024U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy beat expectations in 2Q, but growth is likely to slowAugust 2024
05/28/2024U.S. Economic Snapshot - First quarter GDP growth is slowest since 2Q:2022May 2024
02/22/2024U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth surprised to the upside in 2023February 2024
11/27/2023U.S. Economic Snapshot - The economy surged in 3Q but is expected to slow into next yearNovember 2023
09/22/2023U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth remains solid despite higher interest ratesSeptember 2023
05/23/2023U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth continues to slow under weight of higher interest ratesMay 2023
02/28/2023U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth is moderating, but the job market remains tightFebruary 2023
11/18/2022U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP rebounded in 3Q:2022 but recession risk remains elevatedNovember 2022
08/29/2022U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP fell for the second straight quarter; recession risk risingAugust 2022
05/29/2022U.S. Economic Snapshot - Ukraine War and High Inflation Weigh on U.S. EconomyMay 2022
02/28/2022U.S. Economic Snapshot - Real GDP forecast is for solid but slower growth in 2022February 2022
11/29/2021U.S. Economic Snapshot - COVID-related slowdown in 3Q expected to be temporaryNovember 2021
09/14/2021U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth strongest since 1984 but expected to moderateAugust 2021
06/25/2021U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth forecast to be fastest since 1984June 2021

OCC Working Papers - Banking Performance and Regulation

OCC Working Papers - New Frontiers in Bank Risk Management

Moments in History - Economic Insights from the History of the Federal Banking System

Archived OCC Economics Working Papers

Access a collection of archived OCC Working Papers from 1993-2016.